On Aug. 17 we commemorated and
celebrated 68 years of independence. The yearly display of sacred and
ceremonious spirit proves that the country’s younger generation can
cultivate a deep sense of nationalism and give it renewed meaning for
the future.
Indonesia’s journey since independence
has encountered hardship at times but also reached important milestones.
The generation of 1945 fought for and won our independence. The
generation of 1966 continued with the objective of maintaining
macroeconomic stability and focused on the development of critical
infrastructure in every corner of our archipelago. And despite suffering
from a structural financial crisis, the generation of 1998 demanded
reform that would spread to all layers of society and in the end would
usher in the era of democracy for Indonesia.
Our healthy democracy has been
reinforced by a commitment from all layers of society to ensure that the
euphoria of newfound freedoms does not breed excess. Economic
development and democratization continue to exhibit a mutually
reinforcing relationship. Even when the global financial crisis struck
the United States in 2008, Indonesia was able to sustain itself. It is
understandable then if the younger generation now is being called a
transformative generation, prepared to turn threats and challenges in a
highly uncertain 21st century into meaningful opportunities.
Surpassing expectations
Thirty-two years from now, in 2045, we
will commemorate the 100th year of independence. At that time we hope to
be in the midst of a golden age with yet another generation leading
this great nation. This generation will rise on the back of our
competitive and competent human capital. This view is in line with
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s vision of the future as detailed in
the journal Strategic Review: “Not only can the Generation of 2045
match the strength and spirit of the Generation of 1945, but they will
surpass the expectation of their elders.”
Central to taking on this mantle of the
golden generation, we must identify the opportunities and challenges
confronting our nation. But this is not easy to do.
What Indonesia looks like in 2045 will
be determined by the efforts of people from all layers of society. Most
importantly, our transformation will require mental and physical
endurance and unwavering commitment. This transformation will be a
marathon, not a sprint. And to turn challenges into opportunities, we
must embrace change, particularly in relation to information and
communications technology. This will help alleviate the pressures that
an estimated 9 billion global population will face: the potential for
scarcity, competition and conflict on issues ranging from energy and
food to water.
Our current president predicts that in
2045 Indonesia will be a nation that is free, democratic, just, open,
interconnected and prosperous. This will be realized if his three
targets regarding the state of Indonesia’s economy, democracy and
civilizational development are achieved by 2045. Echoing the president’s
predictions, I would like to add one point: the state of our military.
Homegrown democracy
The first prediction is that Indonesia
in 2045 will become the seventh-largest global economy with a GDP of
about $12 trillion. At $37,000 per capita, this is close to 10 times the
wealth enjoyed by each person on average in Indonesia today. However,
to reach this level of prosperity, what is required is a five-track
strategy that builds on the five tracks laid out by President Yudhoyono.
His tracks are pro-growth, pro-poor, pro-jobs and pro-environment. The
fifth one I propose is pro-technology.
The second prediction is that
Indonesia’s democracy will be stable and mature. Democracy, freedom and
the euphoria of the ballot is not our nation’s ultimate goal. As
emphasized by the president, Indonesia has reached the point of no
return with respect to its form of governance. A culture of democracy
will be nurtured and accompanied by the rule of law and social justice.
Indonesia is the third-largest democracy
in the world, a far cry from its authoritarian past. Still, democracy
remains a process to achieve overarching national aims such as creating a
nation that is secure, at peace and prosperous.
Underlying all this is a consistent
effort to uphold the law and our traditional values as a civilization.
In other words, democracy in Indonesia must be homegrown, so that our
local cultures and ethics remain the basis of a vibrant and
representative democracy.
The third prediction is that Indonesian
civilization will be advanced and held in high esteem. Our nation in
2045 is predicted to be peaceful, tolerant and harmonious. Our people
will form an open society that respects and upholds pluralism and
syncretizes external ideas and influences so that our local cultures
become stronger, richer and more beneficial to our nation as a whole. To
achieve this, we must foster a spirit of multiculturalism, especially
by advancing our national motto of Bhinneka Tunggal Ika , or Unity in
Diversity, and strengthen the harmony our society has valued for
centuries.
Lastly, given a strong economic
foundation, Indonesia will possess a strong military force. This is a
prediction to complement three earlier predictions made by the
president.
Essential force
From the military perspective, a strong
economy must be accompanied strong armed forces. With just 1 percent of
GDP allocated to the defense industry, by 2045 the country can have a
modern and hi-tech main weapons systems to safeguard its sovereignty and
unity. In other words, in 2045 Indonesia will be a strong military
power.
To be sure, this does not mean that
Indonesia will take an aggressive stand against other countries in the
region, but rather that it will be taken seriously in its efforts to
guard its sovereignty from any external or internal threat. Professional
soldiers on the ground must have high-quality weapons systems so that
from Sabang to Merauke, and from Miangas Island to Rote Island, they
will be provided cover from hi-tech fighter jets, warships and Unmanned
Aerial Vehicles.
This is important not only to safeguard our sovereignty but also to minimize casualties when conflict does arise.
Sufficient defense spending would allow
Indonesia to realize a Minimum Essential Force that is absolutely
necessary for our military if it is to anticipate and deal with the wide
spectrum of threats in our globalized era.
Our military must be ready to be
deployed not only for war but also for Military Operations Other Than
War. This requires our soldiers to stand shoulder to shoulder with all
layers of society in responding to natural disasters and other
non-conventional security threats. This must be backed by military
diplomacy and defense cooperation with our allies and partners.
Indonesia will be feared by its enemies and respected by its friends.
To deliver on these four predictions,
three preconditions must be met. First, our human capital must be
developed so that it values a culture of excellence that would allow
Indonesia’s younger generation to adapt to uncertainties and change.
Second, our younger generation must resist complacency in this moment of
transformation and turn coming challenges into game-changing
opportunities. Third, our younger generation must act in time, embodying
the motto: “Think big, do small, do now.”
All this requires exceptional leadership
from all layers of society. We will be able to make Indonesia a much
better nation by 2045, but preparations should start now.
Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono is a 2000 Military Academy graduate, a UN peacekeeper and a Harvard alumnus.
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